Spotify playlists are being used to predict this year's Hottest 100, and it's stacked

Three months ago, we gave a big one-up to Reddit user u/JJJSurvivorFan39, who took a deep-dive on months of Spotify playlists with titles alluding to potential votes in this year's Hottest 100, with the hope of using the data from these streaming playlists to predict a winner.  At the time, they went through around 1400 of these playlists, tallying every track in each one and ranking them from the most-included downwards, until a clear top 200 songs had formed - giving an indication of what a potential Hottest 100 could look like early on.

At the time, a bit of a left-field track was looking to take it all out. Stace Cadet and KLP's house-charged thumper Energy looked primed to run away with the trophy, being a deserving winner not just for Australia's ever-growing electronic space, but for two people that have been behind it and grinding for a decade now, whether it be as musicians themselves or as people one-upping others in their roles through radio and labels.

Underneath, came international heavy-hitters and relatively small homegrown acts alike. The Avalanches' Rivers Cuomo collaboration Running Red Lights was tipped to hit #2, while The Jungle Giants' Send Me All Ur Loving was primed for #3. Underneath that was Lime Cordiale and Powfu rounding out the top five, followed by Flume, The Rubens, Tash Sultana, merci mercy and G Flip in positions #6 to #10 respectively, before BRONSON, Hilltop Hoods, Azure Ryder, FISHER and Glass Animals looked on-edge for a top-ten position, coming in rather close just behind.

Obviously, there's a lot that goes into a Hottest 100 that's quite hard to predict midway through the year - who knows how trends will go over the next six months, and which songs will remain in commercial view - and with a stacked second-half of the year, calling a winner six months out is a touch risky.

Now, we're only a few months out from votes opening, and things are looking a little more clear-cut in terms of who is going to find themselves wound up towards the top-end. So, old-mate u/JJJSurvivorFan39 has given it another crack, updating his findings last month with a bit of extra data compiled throughout the time in-between, with the hopes of giving a more accurate snapshot of a likely triple j Hottest 100 (it's worth noting that yes, October is still quite early to call a winner, however generally speaking, songs released in the first half of the year have won many more times than songs released closer to voting).

This time around, Stace Cadet and KLP have been bumped down to #2, with Glass Animals' Heat Waves instead finding itself at the top with 23% more votes than Energy. The remainder of the top five have shuffled around too, with Eves Karydas' Complicated and G Flip's Hyperfine weaselling their way into the top five alongside The Jungle Giants' still-strong Send Me All Ur Loving. Flume, Lime Cordiale, The Rubens and The Avalanches still find themselves within the top ten, but they're also joined by Sofi Tukker's party-starting House Arrest, which is predicted for #9. Elsewhere, there are some big climbers worth noting. Hope D's Second is now teetering on the edge of a top ten inclusion, while Ball Park Music have now nabbed a potential top 20 with Day & Age.

Glass Animals would be a sure-fire winner of a Hottest 100, a deserving success built from years of work in Australia that have solidified the group as one of the country's international favourites. They've come close a couple of times in the past, but Heat Waves is a great knock for #1 - it's the type of song that just sounds like a winner. 

Obviously, there's a few curveballs not considered here. It'll be dumb to rule a band like Spacey Jane out considering their dominance in 2020 and their cult-like fanbase (#JusticeForBoosterSeat), and new tracks from Mallrat and Chet Faker just last week are primed to be towards the day's top-end. However, for now, consider this a bit of a cheat guide to those taking bets.

Take a dive into the full top 100 below, and find the full post here.

Glass Animals - Heat Waves - 440

Stace Cadet - Energy - 340

Eves Karydas - Complicated - 323

The Jungle Giants - Sending Me Ur Loving - 317

G Flip - Hyperfine - 304

Flume - The Difference - 285

Lime Cordiale - On Our Own - 281

The Avalanches - Running Red Lights (feat. Rivers Cuomo & Pink Siifu) - 263

Sofi Tukker - House Arrest - 256

The Rubens - Heavy Weather - 251

Hope D - Second - 249

BRONSON - HEART ATTACK (feat. lau.ra) - 247

Powfu - death bed (coffee for your head) - 244

Ball Park Music - Day & Age - 228

Tash Sultana - Pretty Lady - 217

merci, mercy - Fucked Myself Up - 216

Hilltop Hoods - I’m Good? - 214

Glass Animals - Your Love (Déjà Vu) - 213

Lime Cordiale - Screw Loose - 211

Tame Impala - Lost In Yesterday - 209

Cosmo’s Midnight - Yesteryear - 201

San Cisco - On The Line - 198

Genesis Owusu - Don’t Need You - 193

Alfie Templeman - Things I Thought Were Mine - 189

Fisher - Freaks - 187

Jack Garratt - Better - 187

Amy Shark - Everybody Rise - 186

Dominic Fike - Chicken Tenders - 186

Lime Cordiale - Addicted To The Sunshine - 186

The Smith Street Band - I Still Dream About You - 184

Ocean Alley - Hot Chicken - 180

Joji - Gimme Love - 178

Remi Wolf - Photo ID - 178

Ocean Alley - Tombstone - 177

DMA’S - The Glow - 176

Azure Ryder - Dizzy - 173

Skegss - Under The Thunder - 172

KIAN - Every Hour - 171

DMA’S - Criminals - 169

Beddy Rays - Sobercoaster - 168

Duke Dumont - Love Song - 168

Ball Park Music - Spark Up! - 167

MAY-A - Green - 166

San Cisco - Reasons - 166

Sonny Fodera - Moving Blind - 165

Spacey Jane - Skin - 156

Spacey Jane - Straightfaced - 156

Kita Alexander - Against The Water - 154

Tkay Maidza - Shook - 154

Mia Rodriguez - Psycho - 153

Sycco - Nicotine - 151

Illy - Loose Ends (feat. G Flip) - 150

JUICE WRLD - Righteous - 150

Eiffel 65 - Blue - Flume Remix - 149

Halsey - You should be sad - 148

Hockey Dad - Itch - 144

Sycco - Dribble - 144

Ocean Alley - Way Down - 142

deadmau5 - Pomegranate - 141

Bring Me The Horizon - Parasite Eve - 140

Choomba - La Luh - 140

The Weeknd - In Your Eyes - 140

George Alice - Stuck In A Bubble - 139

Gracie Abrams - 21 - 139

Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN - 139

Wafia - Pick Me - 138

Hayden James - Right Time - 136

Hockey Dad - Good Eye - 135

Tame Impala - Breathe Deeper - 135

CLYPSO - Sidestep - 134

Nothing But Thieves - Is Everybody Going Crazy? - 134

Alex the Astronaut - I Think You’re Great - 133

Hayley Williams - Simmer - 133

Run The Jewels - JU$T (feat. Pharrell Williams & Zack De La Rocha) - 133

Ziggy Alberts - Together - 133

BENEE - Night Garden (feat. Kenny Beats & Bakar) - 132

Kita Alexander - I Miss You, I’m Sorry - 131

Baker Boy - Move - 128

Boston Manor - Plasticine Dreams - 127

Violent Soho - Lying On The Floor - 127

Hockey Dad - In This State - 124

JUICE WRLD - Come & Go (with Marshmello) - 124

Spacey Jane - Booster Seat - 124

Cosmo’s Midnight - Down For You - 123

Joji - Run - 123

Allday - OTT - 122

Drake - Toosie Slide - 121

The Kid LAROI - GO (feat. Juice WRLD) - 121

Northeast Party House - Shelf Life - 121

YUNGBLUD - Weird! - 121

Lastings - No Time - 120

Oliver Tree - Let Me Down - 119

Peking Duk - Move - 119

Tame Impala - Is It True - 119

Billie Eilish - My Future - 118

Hauskey - Slow - 117

Miiesha - Twisting Words - 117

Grouplove - Deleter - 114

Mura Masa - Live Like We’re Dancing (with Georgia) - 114

The Avalanches - Wherever You Go (feat. Jamie xx, Neneh Cherry & CLYPSO) - 113