Spoiler Alert: Someone's already collated data to predict the Hottest 100 winner

Spoiler Alert: Someone's already collated data to predict the Hottest 100 winner

It's a bit early to call a winner already, but historically speaking, there's a chance this year's countdown winner is already well-familiar.

Usually speaking, the triple j Hottest 100 winner isn't locked in concrete until at least November, and even then, predictions can be a touch shoddy. What we're trying to say, is that the first week of July is way too early to be predicting the winner that'll top the countdown in six months or so time, despite the fact that historically speaking, almost all of the recent winners would have come out by this time of the year (since 2010, only one winner - Macklemore's Thrift Shop, the winner everyone would prefer to forget about - has been released in the second half of the year).

However, that isn't stopping some people from giving it a fair crack already. Over at the triple j subreddit, a keen eye / someone still stuck bored in isolation has gone deep on the data, predicting a leader ahead of the pack when it comes to this year's countdown, and who to expect to be crowned come next January. The person - u/JJJSurvivorFan39 - took a dive into the depths of Spotify playlists, and collated the data of all the tracks in people's 'Hottest 100' / 'Hottest 100 Votes' playlists (which is an incredible way to do it, rather than having to come up with ten songs on the spot when voting opens and have a mental breakdown in the process). They went through around 1400 of these playlists, tallying every track in each one and ranking them from the most-included downwards, until a clear top 200 songs had formed.

It's smart. Although 1400 votes is a mere snapshot of a voting pool that often goes into the millions, it provides a little bit of a suggestion of what people are thinking just six months into the year, and while it'd be a big call to say the number one they've found through this experiment will end up at the top come January, it does offer some clear suggestions as to who is aiming for the top at the halfway point of the year, and which acts have been left in the dirt.

At the moment, the top five includes some past heavyweights of Australia's music world - The Avalanches come in at number two, while The Jungle Giants and Lime Cordiale follow just behind it - but at the top, at the current stage at least, is a bit of a curveball, in KLP and Stace Cadet's blazing club weapon Energy. As someone who has followed and supported both KLP and Stace Cadet since their respective day-dots, the prospects of both of them winding up at the top are mind-blowing, but considering the track has proved a break-out moment for both musicians off the back of a big twelve months or so for Australia's house world, it's not the most far-fetched thing in the world.

Flume's in there too, as is Tash Sultana, The Rubens and G Flip - four acts that have either made it to the top, or have gotten pretty damn close in doing so over the last few years. Unexpected 2020 success story Powfu is nestled at the top - not surprising, considering the song's status as a break-through TikTok hit - while newcomer merci, mercy is in there too.

There are a couple of glaring absences, though. Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever just missed out, despite releasing one of the year's best homegrown records, and The 1975 are there too, perhaps as a result of having votes split across too many songs (after the success they've had with Notes On A Conditional Form, it'd be a real surprise to not see them get in). 

Either way, you can take a dive into the full list below:

  1. Stace Cadet & KLP - Energy - 225
  2. The Avalanches - Running Red Lights (ft. Rivers Cuomo & Pink Siifu) - 187
  3. The Jungle Giants - Sending Me Ur Loving - 178
  4. Lime Cordiale - On Our Own - 177
  5. Powfu - death bed (coffee for your head) (ft. beadadoobee) - 164
  6. Flume - The Difference (ft. Toro y Moi) - 163
  7. The Rubens - Heavy Weather - 156
  8. Tash Sultana - Pretty Lady - 154
  9. merci, mercy - Fucked Myself Up - 153
  10. G Flip - Hyperfine - 151
  11. BRONSON - Heart Attack (ft. lau.ra) - 149
  12. Hilltop Hoods - I’m Good? - 139
  13. Azure Ryder - Dizzy - 135
  14. FISHER - Freaks - 129
  15. Glass Animals - Your Love (Déjà Vu) - 127
  16. Duke Dumont - Love Song - 126
  17. Hope D - Second - 117
  18. Mia Rodriguez - Psycho - 117
  19. Joji - Gimme Love - 107
  20. Nothing But Thieves - Is Everybody Going Crazy? - 107
  21. Tame Impala - Lost In Yesterday - 107
  22. Gracie Abrams - 21 - 105
  23. Kita Alexander - Against The Water - 105
  24. San Cisco - Reasons - 105
  25. Ocean Alley - Hot Chicken - 103
  26. Ocean Alley - Tombstone - 103
  27. Sycco - Nicotine - 102
  28. CLYPSO - Sidestep - 98
  29. Hayley Williams - Simmer - 97
  30. The Smith Street Band - I Still Dream About You - 97
  31. Ball Park Music - Spark Up! - 96
  32. Lastlings - Take My Hand - 96
  33. The Weeknd - In Your Eyes - 95
  34. DMA’S - The Glow - 94
  35. Mura Masa - Live Like We’re Dancing (ft. Georgia) - 93
  36. Choomba - La Luh - 91
  37. KIAN - Every Hour - 89
  38. Halsey - You should be sad - 87
  39. Triple One - Handyman - 85
  40. Sofi Tukker - House Arrest (ft. Gorgon City) - 84
  41. Tones And I - Bad Child - 83
  42. Allday - OTT - 81
  43. Drake - Toosie Slide - 81
  44. Kid Cudi - Leader Of The Delinquents - 81
  45. Lime Cordiale - Addicted To The Sunshine - 81
  46. DMA’S - Life Is A Game Of Changing - 80
  47. Juice WRLD - Righteous - 80
  48. Ziggy Alberts - Together - 80
  49. Eves Karydas - Conplicated - 79
  50. Great Gable - All My Friends - 79
  51. The Kite String Tangle - North - 79
  52. MEDUZA - Born To Love (ft. SHELLS) - 79
  53. Hockey Dad - Itch - 78
  54. Peking Duk - Move (ft. Alisa Xayalith) - 78
  55. Alex the Astronaut - I Think You’re Great - 77
  56. Jack Garratt - Time - 77
  57. Tkay Maidza - Shook - 76
  58. Jess Day - Signals - 75
  59. Baker Boy - Move - 73
  60. Joji - Run - 73
  61. Spacey Jane - Skin - 73
  62. Violent Soho - Lying On The Floor - 73
  63. Hauskey - Slow - 72
  64. Northeast Party House - Shelf Life - 72
  65. Tame Impala - Breathe Deeper - 72
  66. Grimes - 4ÆM - 71
  67. Hayden James - Right Time (ft. Icona Pop) - 71
  68. Cosmo’s Midnight - Down For You (ft. Ruel) - 70
  69. Wafia - Pick Me - 70
  70. Odette - Feverbreak (ft. Hermitude) - 69
  71. Jack River - Dark Star - 68
  72. Spacey Jane - Straightfaced - 68
  73. Eliza & The Delusionals - Swimming Pool - 67
  74. Luca Brasi - This Selfish Love - 67
  75. Max Leone - Cautious - 67
  76. Billie Eilish - No Time To Die - 66
  77. Chillinit - Laying Low - 66
  78. Greta Stanley - Soak Into This - 65
  79. Hockey Dad - In This State - 65
  80. Rich Brian - BALI (ft. Guapdad 4000) - 65
  81. 070 Shake - Under The Moon - 64
  82. Arno Faraji - Bass Jumpin - 64
  83. deadmau5 - Pomegranate (ft. The Neptunes) - 64
  84. Hooligan Hefs - Tell Em I’m Doing Eetswa - 64
  85. Jack Garratt - Better - 64
  86. The Kid LAROI - Diva (ft. Lil Tecca) - 64
  87. Porter Robinson - Something Comforting - 64
  88. San Cisco - On The Line - 64
  89. Slowly Slowly - 19 - 64
  90. Alice Ivy - Don’t Sleep (ft. imbi the girl & BOI) - 63
  91. 070 Shake - Guilty Conscious - 62
  92. Grouplove - Deleter - 62
  93. Genesis Owusu - Don’t Need You - 61
  94. Annie Hamilton - Panic - 60
  95. Stellie - How Do We Look So Good? - 60
  96. JOY. - ANIME - 59
  97. Hayley Mary - Like A Woman Should - 57
  98. EAST AV3 - Le Labo - 55
  99. GRAACE - Hard To Say (ft. I.E.) - 55
  100. Arlo Parks - Eugene - 54
  101. THE SCOTTS - THE SCOTTS (ft. Travis Scott & Kid Cudi) - 54
  102. Dizzy - Sunflower - 53
  103. E^ST - FRESH OUT OF LOVE - 52
  104. Jaguar Jonze - Rabbit Hole - 51
  105. Mac Miller - Blue World - 51
  106. Oliver Tree - Let Me Down - 51
  107. Ball Park Music - Day & Age - 50
  108. Childish Gambino - Time - 50
  109. Death by Denim - Homemade - 50
  110. Kwame - schleep. - 49
  111. Two People - A Taste - 49
  112. Dune Rats - Stupid Is As Stupid Does (ft. K.Flay) - 48
  113. Illy - Last Laugh - 48
  114. KAYTRANDA - 10% (ft. Kali Uchis) - 48
  115. Khalid - Know Your Worth (ft. Disclosure) - 48
  116. Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN - 47
  117. Tia Gostelow - RUSH - 47
  118. Alex the Astronaut - Lost - 46
  119. The Chats - The Clap - 46
  120. Cub Sport - Hearts In Halves - 46
  121. Frank Ocean - Dear April - 46
  122. Rina Sawayama - XS - 46
  123. Duke Dumont - Therapy - 45
  124. Aitch - Rain (ft. AJ Tracey & Tay Keith) - 44
  125. Disclosure - Energy - 44
  126. Gordi - Sandwiches - 44
  127. Miiesha - Twisting Words - 44
  128. Alex Lahey - Sucker For Punishment - 42
  129. Maddy Jane - Perfection’s a Thing and You’re It - 42
  130. Purity Ring - stardew - 42
  131. Stand Atlantic - Shh! - 42
  132. The Amity Affliction - Soak Me In Bleach - 41
  133. E^ST - MAYBE IT’S ME - 41
  134. Tones And I - Ur So F**king cOoL - 41
  135. Violent Soho - Pick It Up Again - 41
  136. Grouplove - Youth - 40
  137. Sorry - Perfect - 40
  138. Becca Hatch - 2560 - 38
  139. EGOISM - You You - 38
  140. Mac Miller - Good News - 38
  141. Violent Soho - Canada - 38
  142. The Kid LAROI - Fade Away (ft. Lil Tjay) - 37
  143. The Kid LAROI - Let Her Go - 37
  144. Overcoats - Fire & Fury - 37
  145. Stand Atlantic - Wavelength - 37
  146. Tired Lion - Waterbed - 37
  147. Boston Manor - Plasticine Dreams - 36
  148. The Chats - Dine N Dash - 36
  149. Denzel Curry - DIET_ (ft. Kenny Beats) - 35
  150. Run The Jewels - JU$T (ft. Pharrell Williams & Zach De La Rocha) - 34
  151. MAY-A - Green - 33
  152. Khalid - Eleven - 32
  153. Trophy Eyes - Figure Eight - 32
  154. Halsey - Still Learning - 31
  155. Purity Ring - peacefall - 31
  156. Grimes - My Name Is Dark - 30
  157. Jamie xx - Idontknow - 30
  158. Last Dinosaurs - Flying - 30
  159. Remi Wolf - Photo ID - 30
  160. Boo Seeka - Take A Look - 29
  161. Polaris - Vagabond - 29
  162. Hayley Williams - Dead Horse - 28
  163. Kwame - Nobody (ft. E^ST) - 28
  164. Ocean Grove - SUNNY - 28
  165. Yungblud - Weird! - 28
  166. Cosmo’s Midnight - Yesteryear - 27
  167. Disclosure - Tondo (ft. Eko Roosevelt) - 27
  168. Juno Mamba - Blossom - 27
  169. #1 Dads - Freedom Fighter - 26
  170. Fergus James - Good Man - 26
  171. Press Club - Insecurities - 26
  172. G Flip - Lady Marmalade (triple j Like A Version) - 25
  173. Great Cable - Blur - 25
  174. Jaguar Jonze - Rising Sun - 25
  175. No Money Enterprise - No Reason - 25
  176. Nina Las Vegas - Impossible (ft. Thai Chi Rosé) - 25
  177. Skepta - Waze (ft. Chip & Young Adz) - 25
  178. Glades - Vertigo - 23
  179. Oliver Malcolm - Switched Up - 23
  180. Slowly Slowly - Race Car Blues - 22
  181. Eliot - Circles - 21
  182. Taka Perry - 21 Orbits (ft. Yaw. & yergurl) - 21
  183. Tame Impala - Is It True - 21
  184. Tia Gostelow - PSYCHO - 21
  185. Amy Shark - Everybody Rise - 20
  186. JACKBOYS - GANG GANG (ft. Sheck Wes) - 20
  187. Love Fame Tragedy - Multiply (ft. Jack River) - 20
  188. Nicole Millar - Favours - 20
  189. Ninajirachi - Cut The Rope - 20
  190. PNAU - Lucky (ft. Vlossom) - 20
  191. Running Touch - Meet Me - 20
  192. The Weeknd - Save Your Tears - 20
  193. Hayley Williams - Pure Love - 19
  194. Adult Art Club - Don’t Give It Up - 18
  195. Bugs - Charlie (triple j Like A Version) - 18
  196. Carla Geneve - Don’t Wanna Be Your Lover - 18
  197. Tones And I - Forever Young (triple j Like A Version) - 18
  198. BRUX - Fruit - 17
  199. Debbies - Waking Up In L.A. - 17
  200. George Alice - Stuck In A Bubble (ft. NASAYA) - 17

--

All credit goes to u/JJJSurvivorFan39 on Reddit for this one, as we are definitely too lazy to do this for ourselves.

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